Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
