Just 60 days ago that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough query to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the victories have accumulated.
Per the data, in only two games has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The winger might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
